关键词: 信息安全风险, 风险分析, 网络攻击, 时滞方程, 时滞系统模型, 非线性动力学

Abstract: The existing models of risk assessment are based on statistical approaches overwhelmingly, and guided by static models and don’t take into account the dynamic nature of interactions in cyberspace. Known tools don’t allow to use delay in taking protective measures in process of risk analysis and assessment. To solve the problem, this paper analyzes the main causes of delay in taking measures to protect the information system, and proposes an information security risk assessment dynamic model which takes into account the delay in taking protective measures. The proposed model allows to create more flexible tools of evaluating the relative value of information security risk both on the basis of statistical data and the qualitative assessments made by using nonlinear models with delay. Further more, this paper also uses the proposed model to stimulate the impact on information security risk by the delay of the security measures. The simulation results show that, timely introduction of measures to counter threats will reduce information security risks effectively.

Key words: information security risks, risk analysis, network attacks, delay equation, model of systems with delay, nonlinear dynamics