关键词: 马尔可夫链, ARIMA模型, GPS监测, 滑坡, 位移预测

Abstract: Landslides occur frequently in China, especially in the Three Gorges Reservoir, which is the landslide-prone area. Surface displacement monitoring with GPS is an important means for monitoring the landslide stability. Taking the Shuping landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, firstly, ARIMA model is used to fit the accumulated displacement time series of Shuping landslide and then MC model is used to optimize the fitting. At last, ARIMA-MC model is built and used to forecast the displacement time series of Shuping landslide. Fitting and forecasting results show that the model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and achieve rolling forecasts of landslide displacement in short term dynamically.

Key words: Markov Chain（MC）, ARIMA model, GPS monitoring, landslide, displacement prediction