关键词: 超短期负荷预测, 回声状态网络, 稳健回归, 电力系统

Abstract: An ultra-short term load forecasting method based on robust regression and echo state network is built considering the very short forecast time of ultra-short term load forecasting. As a recurrent neural network, echo state network has a dynamic reservoir as the hidden layer and trained by linear regression, which can model any given function and make it training very quickly. As a result, echo state network can meet the needs of ultra-short term load forecasting. The using of robust regression to training can effectively reduce the effects of outliers and promote the accuracy of forecasting. The results of calculation example show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.

Key words: ultra-short term load forecasting, echo state networks, robust regression, power system