关键词: 信用度量, 电力客户, 缴费积极性, 统计推断

Abstract: In modern power marketing, it is a core task of reliably evaluating electricity consumers’ credit value to constantly improve the management efficiency. Existing studies mainly rely on subjective experience in designing credit evaluation models. A novel evaluation model is proposed based on consumers’ charge payment behavior in this study. In new model, a behavior index, weighted average of normalized payment period values, is firstly put forward to measure consumers’ charge payment proactivity. Then, theoretical analysis and statistical inference on real consumers’ historical payment data are performed to deduce the valid evaluation model without any known experiential evaluation rules. The application studies based on the new model also are executed, and several interesting results are reported. In a word, several different theoretical and experimental results obtained in the text indicate that, the proposed model has good reasonability and application values in quantifying consumers’ charge consumption credit values.

Key words: credit evaluation, electricity consumer, charge payment proactivity, statistical inference