关键词: 游客量, 罗杰斯增长曲线, 灰色马尔可夫模型, 组合预测

Abstract: Accurate prediction?of tourist amount is significant for the development of the tourism industry. A combined model based on the Logistic?growth and GM-Markov model for predicting tourist amount is proposed. Tourism?theory?and pure mathematical statistical method are combined in this model. Empirical researches are simulated （using the combined model）, the results of the research indicate that the combined model is more accurate than separated one, and it’s more feasible and effective in the practice of tourism.

Key words: tourist amount, Logistic growth, GM-Markov model, combined model