关键词: 城市固体垃圾, GM（1, 1）灰度预测模型, 多元线性回归模型

Abstract: The scientific prediction of municipal solid waste is the basis of the government department of sanitation safe assessment, planning and decision-making. This paper takes Xi’an city, the biggest central city in Northwest China, as an example. By qualitative and quantitative analysis of the factors which affect the waste output, three significant factors which include city’s built-up area, urban per capita disposable income and the urban population are used as predictive indexes. The GM（1，1） grey forecasting model and the polynomial fitting model based on least square method forecast the three indexes, and then a multivariate linear regression model is set up to forecast the emission of MSW of Xi’an 2010 to 2020 on the basis of the early prediction. Significant F test indicates that multiple integrated prediction model is reasonable, and prediction results are meaningful.

Key words: municipal solid waste, GM（1, 1） grey forecasting model, Multivariate Linear Regression（MLR） model