关键词: 水路运输, 船队规划, 随机规划, 二氧化碳排放, 碳排放税, 不确定性

Abstract: Based on preexisting containership companies, this paper proposes a stochastic fleet planning model with consideration of carbon tax scenario structures, aiming at supporting companies to make risk-neutral planning and avoid extreme carbon tax risks. Meanwhile, the carbon tax’ implementation time and rates are described through a 2-dimensional scenario tree. Through case experiment, the stochastic fleet planning model is tested to be feasible. Results show that planning decisions can be adjusted step by step according to carbon tax’s realizations. Higher fleet profits and lower carbon emission volume are obtained by the proposed stochastic model, compared to deterministic model under the same case settings.

Key words: waterway transportation, fleet planning, stochastic programming, carbon dioxide emission, carbon tax, uncertainty