基于BBN的建设项目进度风险定量分析方法

计算机工程与应用 ›› 2014, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (9): 258-263.

基于BBN的建设项目进度风险定量分析方法

谢洪涛

昆明理工大学建筑工程学院，昆明 650093

出版日期:2014-05-01 发布日期:2014-05-14

Quantitative analysis method of schedule risk in construction projects based on Bayesian Belief Networks

XIE Hongtao

Construction Engineering College, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650093, China

Online:2014-05-01 Published:2014-05-14

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 传统的CPM和PERT方法难以对项目的进度延迟风险进行准确的定量分析。将专家先验知识与问卷调查数据相结合，建立了建设项目进度风险评估的贝叶斯信念网络模型，采用NETICA软件对样本数据进行拟合，得到了网络模型各节点间的条件概率分布。模型的应用证明该方法能够比较准确地实现对进度延迟风险的定量预测，具有良好的应用前景。

关键词: 进度风险, 定量分析, 贝叶斯信念网络, 建设项目

Abstract: Quantitative schedule risk analysis is an unresolved problem for the traditional CPM method and PERT method. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network（BBN） is applied to quantifying the probability of construction project delays. Based on the review of relevant literature and survey, a Bayes network model is constructed to quantify schedule risk in construction projects. Through data samples of questionnaire investigation, the probability density of most nodes is got. The validity of the proposed model is tested using a realistic case study.

Key words: schedule risk, quantitative analysis, Bayesian Belief Networks（BBN）, construction projects

谢洪涛. 基于BBN的建设项目进度风险定量分析方法[J]. 计算机工程与应用, 2014, 50(9): 258-263.

XIE Hongtao. Quantitative analysis method of schedule risk in construction projects based on Bayesian Belief Networks[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2014, 50(9): 258-263.

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