关键词: 预测, 康指数, 老龄人, 反向传播（BP）神经网络, 半有源射频识别（RFID）

Abstract: Aiming at lack of prediction of the health status currently in the monitoring system for the old people’s activities in gerocomium by low cost, by using of the data of the old people’s activities from the three-tier monitoring tracking system based on semi-active RFID which has been implemented, this article analyzes statistically and gets hold of the average number of activities which marks on health status. According to the natural relations between the number of activities and healthy status, a model of the health index and the BP neural network of three layer 8-9-1 type are designed to forecast the health index of the elderly after it has been training with the processing data. Experimental results show that the model calculation and prediction results can basically agree with the doctor’s diagnosis, false positives and non-response rates are low. The model provides a low-cost decision support for the nursing and the prediction of elderly health status, and extends effectively the RFID application for perception.

Key words: forecast, health index, elderly people, Back Propagation（BP） neural network, semi-active Radio Frequency Identification（RFID）