关键词: 网络流量, 自回归移动平均, 回声状态网络, 预测精度, 误差补偿

Abstract: In order to obtain better predicting results of network traffic, a novel network traffic predicting model is proposed which uses the advantages of echo state network and autoregressive moving average. Firstly, the linear results of network traffic are obtained by autoregressive moving average while the nonlinear results of network traffic are obtained by echo state network, and then the predicting results of model are fused to obtain the predicting results of network traffic, finally, the simulation experiments are carried out by using some network traffic data. The results show that compared with other predicting models of network traffic, the proposed model not only has improved the predicting precision of the network traffic, and has good robust.

Key words: network traffic, autoregressive moving average, echo state network, predicting precision, error compensation