关键词: 群组决策试验与评价实验室（DEMATEL）, 证据理论, 基本可信度分配, Dempster组合规则

Abstract: In group DEMATEL procedures, how to incorporate expert opinion reasonably is an important technology core for ensuring the effectiveness of group decision making. However, there are some drawbacks in existing literature. Not only the integrated mechanism of expert opinion is unclear, but also the way of single expert judgment has some subjectivity and arbitrary. To overcome the above disadvantages, an improved group DEMATEL approach based on evidence theory is presented by overviewing the traditional group DEMATEL method and systematically analyzing its drawbacks. There are two advantages in the improved approach. On the one hand it reflects the uncertainly of expert opinion with confidence belief function, and effectively integrates group expert opinion with Dempster’s combination rule, on the other hand it realizes expert evidence information interaction according to the thought of overall judgment. The improved approach is validated to be reasonable and would be well applied to solve the real world problems.

Key words: group Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory（DEMATEL）, evidence theory, confidence belief function, Dempster’s combination rule