关键词: 母线负荷预测, 精细化, 安全校核, 母线分类, 地区负荷预测修正法, 概率组合预测

Abstract: In order to improve the elaborate management level of grid security check, it requires to study fundamental bus load forecasting. This text mainly states the overall work process of security check, and the process of elaborate bus load forecasting. It takes elaborate bus classification as basis, employs differential evolution simulated annealing model, overcomes the shortcoming that traditional clustering model often turns into local convergence. Meanwhile, it avoids abnormal data with simple safe check methods. And with elaborate correction based on area load forecasting correction method, it reduces the roughness of the first forecasting, and adopts a kind of adaptive probability weight combination forecast model, which greatly improves the accuracy of forecasting. Many experimental results show that the forecasting level of this process can finally meet the requirements of security check.

Key words: bus load forecasting, elaboration, security constrained, bus classification, area load forecasting correction method, probability combination model