关键词: 证据理论, 有序命题, 基本概率分配, 典型样本

Abstract: This paper constructs the basic probability assignment for the evidence theory applying in the problems of the ordered propositions. As a kind of typical classification problem, the ordered proposition is an active field in the applications of the evidence theory. Its basic probability assignment has distinct characteristics. By analyzing the features, the approach of typical sample is adopted. The Hamming distance between the practical value and typical value is used to obtain the density function of the normal distribution curve, which is applied to construct the basic probability assignment. The application is to evaluate the oil spill accident threaten degree, by which to analyze the shortcomings of this approach. The methods of increasing the Hamming distance flexibly and assigning the basic probability number nonzero for the ignorance are used to make the approach more feasible. The experiment results indicate that the approach proposed by this paper can assign the basic probability assignments effectively and satisfy the applications.

Key words: evidence theory, ordered proposition, basic probability assignment, typical sample