关键词: 相空间重构, 灰色预测模型, 三次指数平滑预测模型, 主成分分析, 组合预测模型

Abstract: In order to establish the forecasting model of SaaS（Software as a Service） operation, the combined forecasting model based on principal component analysis is proposed, and is applied in the forecasting of SaaS operation. A novel combined forecasting model based on principal component analysis is established, which uses three different forecasting models—phase space reconstruction model, grey model, cubic exponential smoothing model. The simulation results show that the combined forecasting model based on principal component analysis, which takes advantages of the unique strength of each model, can provide more precise forecasting than that of each individual model. This combined forecasting model is demonstrated to be efficient for the forecasting of SaaS operation.

Key words: phase space reconstruction, grey model, cubic exponential smoothing model, principal component analysis, combined forecasting model