计算机工程与应用 ›› 2008, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (6): 33-35.

• 博士论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

软件项目投资风险评价过程建模研究

冯 楠1,方德英2   

  1. 1.天津大学 管理学院,天津 300072
    2.北京联合大学 商务学院,北京 100025
  • 收稿日期:2007-04-23 修回日期:2007-11-27 出版日期:2008-02-21 发布日期:2008-02-21
  • 通讯作者: 冯 楠

Research on risk evaluation process modeling in software project investment

FENG Nan1,FANG De-ying2   

  1. 1.School of Management,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China
    2.Business College,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100025,China
  • Received:2007-04-23 Revised:2007-11-27 Online:2008-02-21 Published:2008-02-21
  • Contact: FENG Nan

摘要: 提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的软件项目投资风险评价模型。在建模过程中以样本数据集为基础进行贝叶斯网络参数学习,从而在软件项目的投资阶段建立更加符合实际项目特征的贝叶斯网络。同时,从算法精度以及算法收敛性这两个方面验证该参数学习过程的有效性。经实践检验,在软件项目投资过程中该风险评价模型能够向决策者提供准确的投资风险信息。

Abstract: A risk evaluation model in software project investment based on Bayesian Networks(BNs) is presented in this paper.The BNs parameter learning is applied to the modeling process based on sample data set,so that the BNs is more accordant with the project feature in the software project investment phase.In addition,the validity of the parameter learning is validated with algorithm precision and convergence.Practice proves that the risk evaluation model can provide the accurate risk information for decision-makers in the process of software project investment.