关键词: 可拓模型, 矛盾识别, 国家实力, 国家利益, 博弈决策, 国家战略

Abstract: International strategy game is related to national security and competition, military conflict and war, crisis control and other major national strategic issues. In the international strategy game, there are some features that are macroscopic, wholeness, foreseeability and fuzziness. There are complex correlations between related elements, relationships, rules and indicators, so the quantization simulation and modeling of the international strategy game is difficult. However, the most of international strategy game decision analysis methods focus on current strategy situations and are short of prospective analysis based on contradiction motion. It is hard to avoid the awkward position appeared in international strategy game. For above problems, a multi-source intelligence driving international strategy game decision analysis method based on extenics is proposed. In this method, nation-society structure extension model and national interest structure extension model are constructed for international strategy game. Meantime, national power model is proposed based on five domains, including political, economic, military, diplomatic and cognitive, and national interest measure model is proposed based on the relative interests of the state. The international strategy game decision analysis algorithm is designed. Using open source data for verification, the experimental results show that, the nation-society structure extension model and national interest structure extension model can effectively characterize the international strategy game situation, and accurately identify the principal game object country and key domain, which are consistent with the real situation. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed international strategy game decision analysis method.

Key words: extenics, contradiction identification, national power, national interests, game decision, international strategy