关键词: 证据理论, 软件项目, 风险分析

Abstract: Because of the intelligence-intensiveness of the software product and the complexity of the software project，there are not so many objective indexes we can reference as the common projects when we are analyzing the risks of the software project，and more often depend on the experts’ judgments，thus how to integrate the experts’ judgments has become the problem in the urgent need in the research of the software risk analysis.In order to efficiently syncretize the judgments of the experts，this article brings forward a software project risk analysis model based on theory of evidence by introducing the fuzzy evaluation set and the fuzzy utility function on this set，and gets more reasonable evaluation of risk probability and risk loss.The method emphasizes the importance of the key expert in the decision making，and solves the problem of the evaluation results excessively depend on the selection of the experts，which reduces the complexity of quantifying the risk factors，provides the basis of establishing the risk control strategy.

Key words: theory of evidence, software project, risk analysis