关键词: 秩评估, 安全评估, 相关性分析, 随机模型, 贝叶斯概率

Abstract: The current research on physical observable security assessment focuses on the effectiveness of physical leakage and related side-channel analysis methods. There is little research on the evaluation of the remaining workload of key cracking after side-channel attack, and a security method for key rank evaluation without prototypes has not been effectively proposed. Based on the introduction of stochastic methods and Bayesian probabilities, combined with Nicolas et al.’s research on rank evaluation method, a new security evaluation method for prototypeless side-channel analysis based on cryptographic chips is proposed. Through the correlation analysis and comparison experiment of the microcontroller （AT89C52） running AES encryption algorithm, the experimental results show that when the data size is 500, the number of traversal keys of the correlation analysis method is 20, and the number of traversal keys of the rank evaluation method based on Bayesian probability is 18, so the method proposed in this paper can quantitatively evaluate the remaining space capacity of the key, and effectively solves the key rank evaluation problem of the actual attack equipment if the prototype attack result cannot produce the probability value.

Key words: rank evaluation, security evaluation, correlation analysis, stochastic model, Bayesian probability