关键词: 移动目标防御, 最优策略, 不完全信息动态博弈, 精炼贝叶斯均衡

Abstract: At present, most of the network security defenses based on game theory use the full information static game or the incomplete information dynamic game theory to establish the offensive and defensive model. However, the use of the full information static game is limited and its practicality is not strong. Therefore, using the incomplete information dynamic game to establish the offensive and defensive model is closer to the actual situation, but the attack and defense model established by the incomplete information dynamic game in the past believes that the observed attack strategy is true, which in fact is likely to have errors. The attack strategy without considering the observed attack strategy is likely to have errors. To this end, this paper introduces the idea of Bayesian decision making with minimum risk. When the defense system misjudges the attack strategy, the risks brought to the system arising from the adopted defense strategy will be taken into account. Then, this paper establishes the game’s moving target optimal defense strategy model based on incomplete information dynamic game. By analyzing the risk of the defense decision, this model makes the defense strategy revenue more accurate and comprehensive. It uses the refined Bayesian equilibrium of the incomplete information dynamic game to select the optimal defense strategy. Finally, an example is analyzed to verify the validity of the model.

Key words: moving target defense, optimal strategy, incomplete information dynamic game, perfect Bayesian equilibrium