关键词: 滑坡, 山体结构稳定性, 优化GD-模糊规则, 动态修正

Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of landslide disaster prediction and the problem of difficult parameter selection in traditional monitoring and forecasting, firtly, the influence factors of landslide are extracted by using the analysis method of mountain structure stability. Rainfall, water content, soil pressure and displacement increment of rock and soil surface are obtained as the prediction parameters. Secondly, the selected parameters are used as the input of the fuzzy system to establish the probability model of landslide disaster. And the optimized GD algorithm is introduced to correct the dynamic parameters in the prediction model. It makes the fuzzy control model self-adaptive. At the same time, the results are compared with the unoptimized fuzzy control model and the separate fuzzy control model, the simulation results show that the proposed control algorithm has the advantages of fast convergence speed and good convergence. Moreover the model is tested in the experimental area of the key landslide disaster area, which shows that the model has good convergence and the forecast accuracy reaches 90%.

Key words: landslide disasters, mountain structure stability, optimized GD-fuzzy rule, dynamic correction