关键词: 车辆移动规律性, 轨迹预测, 信息熵, 马尔科夫链

Abstract: The movement of vehicles is regular and controlled by the consciousness of people. Through analyzing vehicles’ trajectory data and establishing the historical trajectory model the movement of vehicles in the future can be predicted. Firstly, a large number of real vehicle trajectory data is collected, the information entropy is calculated and the movement regularity which provides the basis for predicting vehicle trajectory is analyzed. Secondly, according to the special application scenarios of VANETs and the vehicle movement regularity, the state transition matrix is constructed using the history vehicle trajectory data and the vehicle trajectory prediction method based on markov chains is put forward. Simulation results show that the method can achieve the effective prediction of vehicle trajectory. Finally, some factors that influence the accuracy of the prediction are also analyzed.

Key words: vehicle movement regularity, trajectory prediction, information entropy, Markov chains