关键词: 综合预测模型, 权系数, 油田勘探开发, 投资规模, 预测系统

Abstract: In order to avoid the traditional combination forecast method which weights are set by artificial with their subjectivities, and to avoid the hardness of popularizing, to further improve the prediction precision and automation, this paper puts forward a comprehensive forecasting model which is combined of single [N] prediction models, and gives the weight coefficient scientific mathematical calculation steps. To take that predicting the investment of oilfield exploration and development as an example, the results show that the prediction precision of integrated forecast is obvious increased than other single model, and achieves the aims of improving the accuracy and generalizing easily. Finally it builds the investment scale prediction system of this instance, realizes the combination prediction with the development system in order to ensure that prediction of high efficiency.

Key words: integrated forecasting model, weight coefficient, oilfield exploration and development, investment scale, prediction system