关键词: 交通流, 多项式拟合, 预测, 交通系统

Abstract: In order to predicate traffic flow and speed effectively, this paper proposes a method of predication of traffic flow based on local polynomial fitting. It obtains the flow and speed change sequence through the first order difference, uses mutual information method and false nearest neighbor method determining delay time and embedding dimension, reconstructs the state vector and curve-fit forecast function through the neighbor vectors, and uses local polynomial law. Simulation experiment has predicated actual data by new method, the results show that the estimate method is effective.

Key words: traffic flow, polynomial fitting, predication;traffic system