关键词: 电话用户人数, R/S分析, 非周期循环长度, 多重分形分析, 小波变换, 预测

Abstract: By reconstructing the original data by wavelet transform based on R/S analysis and multifractal analysis，it analyses the nonlinear characteristics of the system of fixed-line phone users and mobile phone users and its evolutionary principle.According to fractal dimension，non-periodic cycle，holder index，it points out that the growth of phone users has strong stability，long-term memory and multifractal feature.With the order of paritition function increasing，the multifractal strength increases.Moreover，the multifractal strength of mobile phone users is greater.Compared to the original data，the reconstructed data fit better.The number of phone users of the next three months is forecasted by the reconstructed data.

Key words: the number of phone users, Rescaled Range Analysis（R/S）, non-periodic cycle, multifractal analysis, wavelet transform, forecast