Abstract: In view of the complexity and non-linearity of energy system，this paper analyzes the historical data of energy production in China，the respective model of gray forecast and nonlinear regression model are established firstly，then the method of optimized combination is applied to allocate the weights for the accurate forecast model and forecast value.It is proved that the combination forecasting model is suitable and feasible for studying the production of energy system through analyzing characteristic of the model.The result shows that the model can be taken as an effective tool to predict Chinese future energy production，analyzing the development trend of energy production for future China，as well as providing reliable scientific basis for energy development strategy of China.