Abstract: Aiming at the corresponding relation between reservoir water level and safety levels of tailings dam, fuzzy relation is quantized by possibility theory, and a possibility analysis method on safety levels of tailings dam based on reservoir water level is presented. Trust similar degrees of the measured data and safety levels are calculated through constructing the membership functions among the water level and each safety level, and possibility distribution function between the measured data and safety levels, then the current safety level is judged. The simulation results show the validity of the method.

Key words: possibility theory, safety levels of tailings dam, reservoir water level, exponentiation distribution

摘要： 针对库水位与尾矿坝安全等级的复杂对应关系，利用可能性理论将两者的模糊关系量化，并提出了一种基于库水位的尾矿坝安全等级的分析方法，通过构造库水位关于各安全等级的隶属函数、测量数据关于安全等级的可能性分布函数，计算测量数据关于各安全等级的信任匹配度，从而判断出尾矿坝当前的安全等级。通过实验仿真验证了该方法的有效性。

关键词: 可能性理论, 尾矿坝安全等级, 库水位, 乘幂型分布