Abstract: In order to improve the emergency plan management level of railway station and the emergency response capability, it proposes that a case-based reasoning method based on sensitivity analysis of emergency plan management model. XML（Extensible Markup Language） technology is used to represent cases and construct cases base, the hierarchical structure of case features is designed. The weights of hub emergency plan features are obtained with hierarchical algorithm, the existing cases are retrieved and matched through global similarity algorithm. The example shows that the method can optimize hub emergency decision efficiency, realize the information and intelligence of emergency plan management.

Key words: railway station, emergency plan, case-based reasoning, sensitivity analysis, similarity

摘要： 为提高铁路车站的应急预案管理水平和应急处理能力，提出一种基于敏感度分析的案例推理方法的应急预案管理模型。运用面向对象的框架表示方法来进行案例表示和建立案例库，构建案例特征属性的层次结构。采用层次分析法确定车站紧急事件预案特征属性的权重，运用全局相似度算法对已有应急案例进行检索与匹配。实例证明该方法能有效提高车站应急决策效率，实现预案决策的信息化和智能化。

关键词: 铁路车站, 应急预案, 案例推理, 敏感度分析, 相似度