Abstract: In order to explore the interior rules in earthquake-damaged risk system and the relationship among thus structural elements for military engineering, a model component is designed and implemented for earthquake-damaged risk system based on Interpretative Structural Modeling theory. Following the natural thinking and working procedures of Interpretative Structural Modeling, on the basis of logic relationship about earthquake-damaged risk system for military engineering, an ISM component scheme is given for earthquake-damaged risk system, solving system reaching matrix, which erects multilevel step-up structural model. Such model analyzes the system neural supporting structure, hierarchy relationship and function mapping about the key characteristics. And, thus risk evaluating operations stand with the whole engineering risk of military engineering, and the key characteristics include regional geological environment variation, military engineering-damaged assessment, main structural risk of military engineering and other elements, which provide a scientific basis for studying, exploring and perfecting such earthquake-damaged risk system design about military engineering.

Key words: risk analysis, earthquake, military engineering, Interpretative Structural Modeling（ISM）, component

摘要： 为探究国防工程震害风险体系内部规律和结构元素之间的相互关系，设计和实现了一种基于解释结构模型的国防工程震害风险分析结构模型组件。遵循解释结构模型的本质思想和工作程序，在确定国防工程震害风险分析体系逻辑关系的基础上，给出国防工程震害风险解释结构模型组件方案，研制基于窗体界面线程设计的国防工程震害风险分析解释结构模型算法组件，求解系统可达矩阵，构建多层递阶的国防工程震害风险结构模型。模型解释了国防工程震害风险体系的神经支撑结构、关键特征等层次关系和功能映射，风险评价的立足点在于“国防工程整体性工程风险”，关键特征包括区域地质环境变异元素、国防工程毁伤评估、国防工程主体结构风险等元素，为研究、探索、完善国防工程震害风险系统设计方法提供科学依据。

关键词: 风险分析, 地震, 国防工程, 解释结构模型, 组件