Abstract: In order to study the evolution of liver cirrhosis, which helps to develop a targeted treatment program, an evolution model of liver cirrhosis based on catastrophe theory is proposed. The role of the mechanism between antigen, antibody, and B cells of the immune model of hepatitis B virus, and its mutation characteristics are studied. The roughness Liver edge as the model state variables, antigen and antibody as the control variable model, the cusp-type catastrophe model is established. The model parameters are fitted according to the clinical data. The validity of the model is verified by the history of clinical data.

Key words: complex systems, catastrophe theory, hepatitis B, cirrhosis of liver

摘要： 为了研究乙型肝炎肝硬化的演化规律，从而制定出有针对性的治疗方案，提出了一种基于突变理论的乙型肝炎肝硬化演化模型。研究了乙肝病毒免疫模型中抗原、抗体、和B细胞作用机理，以及免疫模型中的突变特性。利用肝脏边缘粗糙度作为模型状态变量，抗原和抗体作为模型控制变量，建立了尖点型突变模型，并根据临床数据对模型参数进行了拟合。通过历史临床数据验证了模型的有效性。

关键词: 复杂系统, 突变理论, 乙型肝炎, 肝硬化