Abstract: The complex nature of construction, participants with different backgrounds, uncertainties and the incompleteness of the contract often lead to disputing in construction industry. Litigation may be an effective way to solve the problem. In order to avoid resolving disputes through litigation blindly, the paper is trying to predict the outcome of the litigation of disputes by using the CBR-RBR model, so that the parties can know whether their behaviors are reasonable before the resort to the law. The paper proposes a framework of the prediction of litigation outcomes based on CBR-RBR model, then this method is applied to the prediction of construction defects disputes. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of construction defects disputes is up to 93.75%, which indicates that the proposed CBR-RBR method can be effectively applied to the field of construction dispute litigation.

Key words: Case-Based Reasoning-Rule-Based Reasoning（CBR-RBR）, construction disputes, construction defects

摘要： 工程项目争端频发，双方最终有可能通过诉讼解决争端。但诉讼成本高昂，破坏双方友好合作关系并影响公司声誉，因此遭到很多学者的反对。为了避免争端双方盲目通过法律途径解决争端，试图对工程争端诉讼结果进行预测，希望争端双方在诉诸法律之前能够认识到自身行为的合理性。提出通过CBR-RBR方法对工程争端诉讼结果进行预测，并首次尝试对预测结果进行数量化处理，以提高CBR-RBR系统的实际应用价值。在此基础上，以“工程缺陷争端”这一争端类型进行实例研究，结果表明该方法对工程缺陷争端结果预测的准确率高达93.75%，而且最终数量结果的偏差也在预期范围之内，说明提出的CBR-RBR方法可以有效地应用于工程争端诉讼结果的预测，为双方解决争端提供科学依据。

关键词: 基于案例的推理-基于规则的推理（CBR-RBR）, 工程争端, 工程缺陷