Abstract: To deal with the production strategy of manufacturer with carbon emission caps under low-carbon economy，the carbon emissions permits can be obtained in three different ways，including emission quota allocated by government，emissions permits trading and emissions savings via purification，an optimal production model based on CVaR with government’s emissions quota under random demand is developed.A choice condition of manufacturer preferring to trading or purification under carbon emissions caps is proposed，which is related with purifying cost，purifying level and carbon emissions permit price，and is not related with manufacturer’s risk aversion.A numerical experiment is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the model and the influence of the parameters on optimal production decisions.

Key words: Conditional Value-at-Risk（CVaR）, carbon emissions, production strategy, risk aversion

摘要： 为了解决低碳经济下生产商考虑碳排放权限制的生产策略问题，考虑碳排放权主要来自于政府配额、市场交易和净化减排处理三种方式，建立了随机需求和政府配额限制下基于CVaR测度的生产商生产优化决策模型，分析了生产商获取政府配额以外碳排放权的优先选择市场交易与净化处理方式的决策条件，与生产商净化处理成本、净化处理水平和碳排放权市场交易价格相关，与生产商的风险规避水平无关，并得到了生产商在碳排放权限额下的最优生产策略。最后通过算例分析说明了模型的有效性以及模型参数对生产商最优化决策的影响。

关键词: 条件风险价值, 碳排放, 生产策略, 风险规避