Abstract: Managing IT as a portfolio can link companies’ business requirement with IT application by balancing risk and return，but making IT project portfolio decision is difficult.One reason is unavailable and unreliable information for portfolio selection and the other is aligning IT projects with enterprise’s goal.The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy IT project portfolio selection based on strategic alignment.Fuzzy set theory is applied to model uncertain information and Critical Success Factors（CSF） is used to align enterprise’s strategy with IT projects.The IT portfolio selection problem is formulated as a fuzzy zero-one integer programming model.A new transformation method based on qualitative possibility theory is developed to convert the fuzzy portfolio selection model into a crisp mathematical model and can be solved by an optimization technique.A case is used to illustrate the proposed approach can assist decision makers in selecting suitable IT project portfolios.

Key words: IT project portfolio, strategic alignment, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process（FAHP）, qualitative possibility theory

摘要： 把信息技术项目当作组合来管理可以通过平衡风险和收益来促进企业目标和IT应用的结合，但由于决策信息的不确定性和IT项目目标与企业战略的难以对应，企业面临IT项目组合选择的挑战。构建基于战略对应的IT项目组合选择模型，其中模糊集和模糊层次分析法用来刻画不确定信息和评估IT项目风险、成本及收益，关键成功因素法用来提高IT项目与企业战略的对应，并建立模糊0－1整数规划。利用定性可能性理论把模糊组合选择模型转化为一般可求解的整数规划形式，最后用一个案例说明模型的用法。

关键词: IT项目, 战略对应, 模糊层次分析法, 定性可能性理论