Computer Engineering and Applications ›› 2010, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (15): 215-217.DOI: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.2010.15.064

• 工程与应用 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Optimal combination forecasting model of air cargo volume

WEN Jun,JIANG You-hui,FANG Wen-qing   

  1. College of Aviation Transportation Management,Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan,Sichuan 618307,China
  • Received:2009-11-20 Revised:2010-02-22 Online:2010-05-21 Published:2010-05-21
  • Contact: WEN Jun


文 军,蒋由辉,方文清   

  1. 中国民航飞行学院 航空运输管理学院,四川 广汉 618307
  • 通讯作者: 文 军

Abstract: According to air cargo volume statistical data in China from the year 1997 to 2007,by optimizing GM(1,1) model and regression analysis model combined,an air cargo volume combination forecasting model based on Induced Ordered Weighted Geometric Averaging(IOWGA) operators is established and tested.The test result shows that this model is effective and suitable,has higher forecasting accuracy,and is applicable to practice.Then the combination forecasting model is used to forecast air cargo volume in China from the year 2009 to 2012.

摘要: 以1997年~2007年我国航空货运量的统计数据为基础,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和回归分析模型进行组合优化,建立了基于诱导有序几何加权平均(IOWGA)算子的航空货运量组合预测模型,并对组合预测模型进行检验。检验结果表明,组合预测模型是有效、可靠的,且具有较高的预测精度,可应用于实际预测。最后利用所建立的预测模型预测了2009年~2012年我国航空货运量。

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