Abstract: According to the theory of system engineering，this paper studies and builds an optimum model of energy structure development decision，briefly introduced and the technical indices are given.This model has an application in energy structure optimizing of China in the future of 2020 years.The calculation shows as follows：Energy consumption has to be dependent heavily on coal.The industrial structure adjustment and the energy consumption have the same trend for a long term on the base of industrial structure adjustment characteristics and energy problem.

Key words: energy structure, system engineering, development decision

摘要： 采用系统动力学方法，建立一个新的定量分析决策系统模型，给出了关于这一系统模型结构与功能的基本描述；使用模型对不同情景下2020年中国能源结构系统的动态发展进行了研究。结果表明：中国当前及未来相当一段时间内仍将是以煤炭为主要基础能源的国家。除经济发展速度及规模对能源消费具有较大影响外，产业结构变动也是影响能源消费的重要因素。

关键词: 能源结构, 系统动力学, 发展决策