关键词: GM灰色模型, 传统建模, 指数模型, 最小二乘法

Abstract: Complex GM gray model and theory can be transformed into a simple model and theory. Traditional model and theory can also rise as similar to the GM gray model and theory. It makes the two have the same property and comparability. The latter as the former frame, GM gray model and the theory are discussed and analyzed. This paper points out: GM modeling process of data accumulation, is the simple issue complication; the GM model choice, is the complex problem simplification; on the theory of differential equations, it is applied mechanically, completely unsuitable; the optimal approximation criterion is weakened, which makes the study of no limits; and the essence of Gray is that the multi-colors models are mixed, data are kidnapped; individual success cases, only on the probability of hitting, there is no universal guiding significance. It also provides the derivation, points out the main points, carries on the proof, and gives some examples.

Key words: GM gray model, traditional modeling, exponential model, least square method